May, 2023
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Domestic Macro Indicators |
India's GDP grew 4.4% in Q3FY23 but missed expected estimates of 4.6%. India is estimated to grow at 7% in FY23 as per RBI projections.
Composite PMI came in at 61.6 in Apr'23 compared to 57.6 a year ago amid quicker expansions at goods producers and service providers.
GST collections in April is up 12% YoY to 1.9 lakh Cr from 1.7 lakh Cr a year ago and has consistently been higher than 1.4 lakh Cr for the past year
FPIs continued their buying trend in the month of April with inflows of Rs. ~11,630 Crs
The above material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute or form part of any recommendation or advice.
Source: Bloomberg, NSDL
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Domestic Macro Indicators |
Forex Reserves have gone up and now stands at ~584 Bn USD.
Mar CPI inflation was at 5.7% and is below RBIs target inflation level of 2% to 6% again.
Trade deficit widened to $19.7 Bn in Mar'23 from $18.5 Bn a year ago. The deficit widened due to jump in oil prices over last month due to OPEC+ cut announcement
Lending and Term deposit rates have been increased with increase in RBI repo rate
The above material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute or form part of any recommendation or advice.
Source: Bloomberg, RBI, Ministry of Commerce
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Macro Indicators showing mixed signs |
Macro Economic Indicator Heat Map
Source: Bloomberg
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Macro Indicators showing mixed signs |
Macro Economic Indicator Heat Map
Source: Bloomberg
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Possibility of global growth recovery with reopening of China |
Growth projections have slumped due to recession concerns in US & Europe
Despite concerns of rate hikes taking a toll on growth, India is expected to be one of the fastest growing major economies in CY23.
PMI numbers reflecting impact on global recovery due to macro headwinds
Global Negative-Yielding Debt has come down from 18.5 Tn USD in Dec'20 to 1.8 Tn USD in Apr'23
The above material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute or form part of any recommendation or advice.
Source: IMF, Bloomberg
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Other global macro indicators: Liquidity, Dollar Index & Oil prices |
Fed has resumed withdrawing liquidity from the system after a brief injection to support the banking system and avoid default crisis
CRB commodity index has corrected from May'22 highs of 644 and is currently trading at 547 indicating a cool-off in metal & other commodity prices globally
Dollar Index resumed its downward trend despite investor worries around the possibility of further rate hikes by Fed.
OPEC+ has decided to reduce the supply by ~1.6 Mn bbl per day starting May'23 on concern that a global banking crisis would hit demand.
The above material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute or form part of any recommendation or advice.
Source: Bloomberg
![]() | US Fed is gearing for a conditional pause |
Market is now factoring a brief pause and start of rate cuts by the end of the year.
Select sectors are showing decent earnings outlook
Source: Bloomberg, BLS, KIE
Data is as on 30th April, 2023
![]() | China's macro health is showing signs of recovery |
MSCI GD Index is trading at ~15% discount to its 5 yr average Fwd P/E levels
Macro indicators (barring real estate) are showing signs of recovery in China
Source: Bloomberg
Data is as on 30th April, 2023
![]() | Mutual Funds flows bounce back; Strong SIP collections continue |
Assets managed by the Indian mutual fund industry has increased from Rs. 37.7 trillion in Mar 2022 to Rs. 40.1 trillion in Mar 2023 with proportionate share of Equity schemes increasing from 48.9% to 51.6% with contributions from both MTM movement and positive inflows
SIP Flows have crossed 14k Crs for the first time. And, overall MF Flows bounced to 20,534 Crs in Mar'23 from 15,865 Crs a month ago.
The above material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute or form part of any recommendation or advice.
Source: AMFI
![]() | Indian markets rallied in the month of April |
Benchmark, Factor Indices & Sectoral Performance
Equity MF Category wise Performance (in %)
The above material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute or form part of any recommendation or advice.
Source: Bloomberg
Performances are as of 30th April, 2023
![]() | Global Markets continued their rally in April |
Developed Market Performance
Emerging Market Performance
The above material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute or form part of any recommendation or advice.
Source: Bloomberg
Data is as on 30th April, 2023
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Valuation and yield gap have come within historical range |
The market is now trading below its long-term 12-month forward. The composition of the index has also changed in favor of high quality, higher P/E stocks in the past few years.
The yield gap (diff. of bond & earnings yield) has narrowed from Oct highs and is within historical range, with rise in earnings yields
Nifty 50 Index valuations have tapered down from their November highs and are now trading below historical averages
The above material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute or form part of any recommendation or advice.
Source: Bloomberg
Data is as on 30th April, 2023
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Domestic Equity Valuation Indicator is suggesting that we are in the neutral zone |
Source: Bloomberg
Data is as on 30th April, 2023
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Nifty 50 levels at different P/E bands |
Source: KIE, Bloomberg Estimates
Data is as on 30th April, 2023
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Indian markets rallied in April and are trading in the historical average range |
Majority of the benchmarks and sectoral indices are trading at a discount to their historical averages after consolidation in the last 15 - 18 months
Market cap to GDP levels are still trading above their historical average but has come down from September 2021 highs
Earnings recovery is expected to remain uncertain amidst global macro concerns
The above material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute or form part of any recommendation or advice.
Source: Bloomberg
Data is as on 30th April, 2023
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Majority of global markets advanced and are trading below their long term historical averages |
Most of the global markets are trading at a discount relative to their historical 5 yr. Fwd P/E avg.
Indian markets are trading at relative premium compared to their peers but the premium has come down in the last 3 months
The above material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute or form part of any recommendation or advice.
Source: Bloomberg
Data is as on 30th April, 2023
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Global Mkt Forward P/E |
Source: Bloomberg
Data is as on 30th April, 2023
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Key events to watch out for |
India
➢ Quarterly earnings report and management commentary
Global
➢ Fed Monetary policy meeting
Source: Bloomberg
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Key risks to the markets |
➢ Impact of policy tightening & stimulus withdrawal (slowdown and earning downgrades)
➢ Inflation start rising again due to China re-opening and Central banks take longer to pause
➢ Escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia & Ukraine.
➢ Adverse weather forecast amid predicting high probability of El Nino which can impact food inflation.
Source: Bloomberg
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Equity Strategy |
Source: Bloomberg
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Equity Strategy |
Source: Bloomberg
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Recommended Equity Funds' Performances |
Source: MFI Explorer Returns are CAGR as on May 09, 2023 and for Regular Plans with Growth option. Corpus size is as on Mar, 2023.
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Recommended Equity Funds' Performances |
Source: MFI Explorer Returns are CAGR as on May 09, 2023 and for Regular Plans with Growth option. Corpus size is as on Mar, 2023.
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Recommended Hybrid Funds' Performances |
Source: MFI Explorer Returns are CAGR as on May 09, 2023 and for Regular Plans with Growth option. Corpus size is as on Mar, 2023.
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Policy Rates Movement Across the Globe
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Source: Bloomberg, RBI, SBIMF Research
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India G-Sec Curve Movement - Unexpected Bullish Flattening
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Source: Bloomberg, RBI, SBIMF Research
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External Sector pressures ease substantially
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Source: Bloomberg, RBI, SBIMF Research
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Real Rates Movement Across Years
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Source: Bloomberg, RBI, SBIMF Research
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Fixed Income Outlook
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Source: Bloomberg, RBI, CCIL, Kotak Economist/SBIMF Research Reports
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Fixed Income Strategy
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Source: Bloomberg
▮ | Indicative Prevailing Yields across Investment Options |
▮ | Recommended Debt Funds' Performances |
Source: MFI Explorer. Less than 1 year Simple Annualized returns, Greater than or Equal to 1 year Compound Annualized returns. Returns as on May 09, 2023 and for Regular Plans with Growth option. Corpus size is as on Mar, 2023.
▮ | Disclaimer |
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